Godina izdanja: 2008
ISBN: 978-0-1410-3459-1
Jezik: Engleski
Autor: Strani

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB

THE BLACK SWAN - The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Izdavač - Penguin Books, London

Godina - 2008

370 strana

20 cm

ISBN - 978-0-1410-3459-1

Povez - Broširan

Stanje - Kao na slici, ima žvrljotinu na predlistu, tekst bez podvlačenja



SADRŽAJ:
Prologue
On the Plumage of Birds
What You Do Not Know
Experts and `Empty Suits`
Learning to Learn
A New Kind of Ingratitude
Life Is Very Unusual
Plato and the Nerd
Too Dull to Write About
The Bottom Line
Chapters Map

UMBERTO ECO`S ANTILIBRARY, OR HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION
Chapter 1: The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic
Anatomy of a Black Swan
On Walking Walks
`Paradise` Evaporated
The Starred Night
History and the Triplet of Opacity
Nobody Knows What`s Going On
History Does Not Crawl, It Jumps
Dear Diary: On History Running Backward
Education in a Taxicab
Clusters
Where Is the Show?
83/4 Lbs Later
The Four-Letter Word of Independence
Limousine Philosopher

Chapter 2: Yevgenia`s Black Swan

Chapter 3: The Speculator and the Prostitute
The Best (Worst) Advice
Beware the Scalable
The Advent of Scalability
Scalability and Globalization
Travels Inside Mediocristan
The Strange Country of Extremistan
Extremistan and Knowledge
Wild and Mild
The Tyranny of the Accident

Chapter 4: One Thousand and One Days, or How Not to Be a Sucker
How to Learn from the Turkey
Trained to Be Dull
A Black Swan Is Relative to Knowledge
A Brief History of the Black Swan Problem
Sextus the (Alas) Empirical
Algazel
The Skeptic, Friend of Religion
I Don`t Want to Be a Turkey
They Want to Live in Mediocristan

Chapter 5: Confirmation Shmonfirmation!
Zoogles Are Not All Boogles
Evidence
Negative Empiricism
Counting to Three
Saw Another Red Mini!
Not Everything
Back to Mediocristan

Chapter 6: The Narrative Fallacy
On the Causes of My Rejection of Causes
Splitting Brains
A Little More Dopamine
Andrey Nikolayevich`s Rule
A Better Way to Die
Remembrance of Things Not Quite Past
The Madman`s Narrative
Narrative and Therapy
To Be Wrong with Infinite Precision
Dispassionate Science
The Sensational and the Black Swan
Black Swan Blindness
The Pull of the Sensational
The Shortcuts
Beware the Brain
How to Avert the Narrative Fallacy

Chapter 7: Living in the Antechamber of Hope
Peer Cruelty
Where the Relevant Is the Sensational
Nonlinearities
Process over Results
Human Nature, Happiness, and Lumpy Rewards
The Antechamber of Hope
Inebriated by Hope
The Sweet Trap of Anticipation
When You Need the Bastiani Fortress
El desierto de los tártaros
Bleed or Blowup

Chapter 8: Giacomo Casanova`s Unfailing Luck:
The Problem of Silent Evidence
The Story of the Drowned Worshippers
The Cemetery of Letters
How to Become a Millionaire in Ten Steps
A Health Club for Rats
Vicious Bias
More Hidden Applications
The Evolution of the Swimmer`s Body
What You See and What You Don`t See
Doctors
The Teflon-style Protection of Giacomo Casanova
`I Am a Risk Taker`
I Am a Black Swan: The Anthropic Bias
The Cosmetic Because

Chapter 9: The Ludic Fallacy, or The Uncertainty of the Nerd
Fat Tony
Non-Brooklyn John
Lunch at Lake Como
The Uncertainty of the Nerd
Gambling with the Wrong Dice
Wrapping Up Part One
The Cosmetic Rises to the Surface
Distance from Primates

WE JUST CAN`T PREDICT
From Yogi Berra to Henri Poincaré

Chapter 10: The Scandal of Prediction
On the Vagueness of Catherine`s Lover Count
Black Swan Blindness Redux
Guessing and Predicting
Information Is Bad for Knowledge
The Expert Problem, or the Tragedy of the Empty Suit
What Moves and What Does Not Move
How to Have the Last Laugh
Events Are Outlandish
Herding Like Cattle
I Was `Almost` Right
Reality? What For?
`Other Than That,` It Was Okay
The Beauty of Technology: Excel Spreadsheets
The Character of Prediction Errors
Don`t Cross a River if It Is (on Average) Four Feet Deep
Get Another Job
At JFK

Chapter 11: How to Look for Bird Poop
How to Look for Bird Poop
Inadvertent Discoveries
A Solution Waiting for a Problem
Keep Searching
How to Predict Your Predictions!
The Nth Billiard Ball
Third Republic-Style Decorum
The Three Body Problem
They Still Ignore Hayek
How Not to Be a Nerd
Academic Libertarianism
Prediction and Free Will
The Grueness of Emerald
That Great Anticipation Machine

Chapter 12: Epistemocracy, a Dream
Monsieur de Montaigne, Epistemocrat
Epistemocracy
The Past`s Past, and the Past`s Future
Prediction, Misprediction, and Happiness
Helenus and the Reverse Prophecies
The Melting Ice Cube
Once Again, Incomplete Information
What They Call Knowledge

Chapter 13: Appelles the Painter, or What Do You Do if You
Cannot Predict?
Advice Is Cheap, Very Cheap
Being a Fool in the Right Places
Be Prepared
The Idea of Positive Accident
Volatility and Risk of Black Swan
Barbell Strategy
`Nobody Knows Anything`
The Great Asymmetry

THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN
Chapter 14: From Mediocristan to Extremistan, and Back
The World Is Unfair
The Matthew Effect
Lingua Franca
Ideas and Contagions
Nobody Is Safe in Extremistan
A Brooklyn Frenchman
The Long Tail
Naïve Globalization
Reversals Away from Extremistan

Chapter 15: The Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual Fraud
The Gaussian and the Mandelbrotian
The Increase in the Decrease
The Mandelbrotian
What to Remember
Inequality
Extremistan and the 80/20 Rule
Grass and Trees
How Coffee Drinking Can Be Safe
Love of Certainties
How to Cause Catastrophes
Quételet`s Average Monster
Golden Mediocrity
God`s Error
Poincaré to the Rescue
Eliminating Unfair Influence
`The Greeks Would Have Deified It`
`Yes/No` Only Please
A (Literary) Thought Experiment on Where the Bell Curve
Comes From
Those Comforting Assumptions
`The Ubiquity of the Gaussian`

Chapter 16: The Aesthetics of Randomness
The Poet of Randomness
The Platonicity of Triangles
The Geometry of Nature
Fractality
A Visual Approach to Extremistan/Mediocristan
Pearls to Swine
The Logic of Fractal Randomness (with a Warning)
The Problem of the Upper Bound
Beware the Precision
The Water Puddle Revisited
From Representation to Reality
Once Again, Beware the Forecasters
Once Again, a Happy Solution
Where Is the Gray Swan?

Chapter 17: Locke`s Madmen, or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places
Only Fifty Years
The Clerks` Betrayal
Anyone Can Become President
More Horror
Confirmation
It Was Just a Black Swan
How to `Prove` Things

Chapter 18: The Uncertainty of the Phony
Ludic Fallacy Redux
Find the Phony
Can Philosophers Be Dangerous to Society?
The Problem of Practice
How Many Wittgensteins Can Dance on the Head of a Pin?
Where Is Popper When You Need Him?
The Bishop and the Analyst
Easier Than You Think: The Problem of Decision Under Skepticism

THE END
Chapter 19: Half and Half, or How to Get Even with the Black Swan
When Missing a Train Is Painless
The End

Epilogue: Yevgenia`s White Swans

Acknowledgments
Glossary
Notes
Bibliography
Index


`The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper?

This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they`re impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them.

`Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide ... I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person` Will Self, Independent on Sunday

`He leaps like some superhero of the mind` Boyd Tonkin, Independent`



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